A major global health assessment has warned that malicious AI use, including AI-enabled bioweapons, and nuclear conflict could cause human extinction this century, alongside a wider range of catastrophic threats.
Humanity could become extinct by 2100 as a result of malicious artificial intelligence or nuclear conflict, according to a major global assessment of threats to health.
The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health identified 17 major risks facing humanity over the next 75 years, ranging from climate change and antimicrobial resistance to childhood malnutrition, declining international aid and unhealthy ageing.
The report said: “Malicious use of AI, including bioweapons, and nuclear conflict with nuclear famine carry risks of extinction in the next 75 years.”
The commission said the probability of either scenario remains low, but the consequences could be catastrophic.
A nuclear conflict could inject enough particles into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight, potentially triggering widespread crop failures and famine.
AI could also be used to help develop biological weapons capable of causing unprecedented harm.
An accompanying Lancet editorial warned that the consequences of either scenario would amount to “an apocalypse on humanity”.
Professor Christopher Murray, commission co-chair and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, said decisions made by governments today would determine the health and wellbeing of future generations.
The commission assessed each threat by estimating disability-adjusted life years, or Dalys, which measure years of healthy life lost through illness, disability or premature death.
Other risks classified as major catastrophic threats because they could cause more than one billion cumulative Dalys include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, climate breakdown, conventional conflict, childhood malnutrition and naturally occurring pandemics.
The assessment also highlighted cuts to international aid as a growing danger.
A collapse or major reduction in health aid could result in up to 1.5 billion Dalys being lost before 2100, with almost 70 per cent of those losses occurring in sub-Saharan Africa.
The researchers said tackling climate change could prevent enormous health losses.
Limiting global warming to about 1.8C, rather than allowing temperatures to reach 4.4C, could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life being lost.
Ibrahim Abubakar, a commission member and professor of infectious disease epidemiology at UCL, said the assessment was not intended simply to frighten policymakers.
Instead, he said, it was designed to show governments where intervention could make a difference.
The commission’s 35 experts presented their findings at the World Health Summit in Berlin on Sunday (11.10.26).
The assessment is due to be updated annually as new evidence emerges and additional threats are identified.
Professor Murray said governments should devote resources to “anticipation, prevention and preparation” before emerging risks develop into full-scale crises.
AI and nuclear war threaten human extinction by 2100
